AAPLLoadingMSFTLoadingNVDALoadingGOOGLLoadingAMZNLoadingMETALoadingTSLALoadingAMDLoadingNFLXLoadingCOINLoadingPYPLLoadingSPYLoadingQQQLoadingIWMLoadingJPMLoadingVLoadingDISLoadingKOLoadingJNJLoadingNKELoadingXOMLoadingASMLLoading
Sofia Marchetti

Flow & event trades

Sofia Marchetti

Options-flow interpretation, earnings setups, and post-trade reviews for active traders.

Verified@optionsflow30 subscribersSince May 2026

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Track record

· last 30 days Verified
Shares
+77.8%Verified cumulative return · 6 closed
67%Win rate
+12.5%Avg return
+71.2%Best call
+20.1%Avg win
-2.6%Avg loss
1WStreak
11dAvg hold

Closed calls

6 in 30 days
Crude Oil (WTI) (USO)weeklyShort
$435.22 → $125.47 · May 27–Jun 14 · 18d hold
+71.2%
Crude Oil (WTI) (USO)dailyShort
$232.37 → $243.73 · Jun 3–Jun 4 · 1d hold
-4.9%
S&P 500 (SPY)monthlyShort
$109.07 → $109.49 · May 25–Jun 2 · 8d hold
-0.4%
Silver (SLV)weeklyLong
$58.34 → $60.90 · May 20–May 28 · 8d hold
+4.4%
Copper (CPER)dailyLong
$183.60 → $191.16 · May 14–May 27 · 13d hold
+4.1%
Gold (GLD)weeklyLong
$65.69 → $66.25 · May 4–May 24 · 20d hold
+0.8%
OptionsModeled
+75.8%Avg modeled return per call · 5 closed
60%Win rate

Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.

+75.8%Avg return
+245.4%Best call
+168.9%Avg win
-63.9%Avg loss
1WStreak
13dAvg hold

Closed calls

5 in 30 days
JPMPut $210.57 exp Jun 2
$4.46 → $6.18 · May 26–Jun 2 · 7d hold
+38.6%
NFLXPut $690.79 exp Jun 1
$26.58 → $91.82 · May 16–Jun 1 · 16d hold
+245.4%
MSTRCall $177.53 exp Jun 1
$5.04 → $3.64 · May 14–Jun 1 · 18d hold
-27.8%
AMDCall $165.94 exp May 26
$3.58 → $11.55 · May 17–May 26 · 9d hold
+222.6%
AVGOCall $172.23 exp May 22
$7.46 → $0.00 · May 6–May 22 · 16d hold
-100.0%
+Shares vs options — what's the difference?
SharesYou own the stock. The return is the underlying's move (entry → exit), linear, and you can hold as long as you like. Steadier, lower leverage.
OptionsYou buy a contract (a call or put at a strike, expiring on a date). The return is on the premium — leveraged (a small stock move can be a huge % on the option) and time-sensitive (value decays toward expiry). Higher risk and reward; here the premium is modeled, not self-reported.

Live calls

3 open
Live calls are subscriber-only

The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.

4 notes 64% win rate, closed ideas1-10 days average holdOptions spreads
FreeIndex & ETFsQQQMay 21

The QQQ level that decides the trend (Part 2)

Mean reversion odds are stacked here after this stretch above trend.

LongMedium convictionOptions spreads risk 3 min read
QQQQQLoading delayed quote
SPSPYLoading delayed quote
NVNVDALoading delayed quote
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FreeIndex & ETFsNVDAMay 17

NVDA: the rotation under the surface

The melt-up is running on thin participation, which rarely ends cleanly.

Neutral / hedgedMedium convictionOptions spreads risk 5 min read
NVNVDALoading delayed quote
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FreeIndex & ETFsNVDAMay 3

Why I'm fading this NVDA rally

Mean reversion odds are stacked here after this stretch above trend.

ShortMedium convictionOptions spreads risk 10 min read
NVNVDALoading delayed quote
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PaidIndex & ETFsTSLAMar 17

TSLA: the rotation under the surface

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on TSLA. Subscribe to read on.

ShortHigh convictionOptions spreads risk 7 min read
TSTSLALoading delayed quote
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