MSTR: the level that decides the cycle

The thesis

The cycle level is clear; I trade around it with defined risk.

ETF inflows are the marginal buyer now, and on-chain supply is tightening into it.

What I'm watching

• exchange balances
• exchange balances
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Long on MSTR, 1-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: Low. Regulatory headlines can gap the tape; I plan for it.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.