The GDX setup macro bears miss

The thesis

A clean breakout above the range opens meaningful upside.

With real rates rolling, the bull case for GDX gets simpler, not harder.

What I'm watching

• the key breakout level
• managed-money positioning
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on GDX, 2-12 weeks horizon. Conviction: High. Dollar strength caps the move; I watch DXY closely.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.